Climate related changes of spring barley phenology in Lithuania

Abstract

Global warming is gaining significance as a threat to ecosystems, since temperature is one of the major abiotic constraints to productivity. Considering that better understanding of the effects of climate change on phenological development of field crops may help to optimize their management schemes and increase productivity. But most of attention is concentrated on winter crops leaving spring crops aside. The purpose of this study was to trace long-term spring barley phenology trends, and to predict changes in different phenological phases timing and duration, for the current century. The purpose of this study was to trace long-term spring barley phenology trends, and to predict changes in different phenological phases timing and duration, for the current century. The temporal and spatial phenological trends of spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) over the period of 1961-2015 were analyzed using data of the phenological observation network at 7 phenological sampling sites located throughout Lithuania. Over the investigated period mainly two cultivars (Auksiniai II and Auksiniai III) were grown in the study area. For future climate, five global circulations models (GCMs)(MPI-ESM-LR; IPSL-CM5A-LR; CNRM CM5; HadGEM2-AO and HadGEM2-ES), were selected, together with two highest contrasting future climate change scenarios - RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. For the phenological analysis the amount of accumulated temperature required for the occurrence of the following phenological phases of spring barley were evaluated: sowing, emergence, heading, and harvest. It was found that temperature increase significantly affected agricultural management schedule by altering the occurrence of sowing and emergence dates. Retrospective trend of spring barley harvest dates showed rather a slight delay [...]