The implementation of climate change policy in Ukraine and comparison with European Union

Abstract

The problem of climate change is one of the most important concerns for humanity nowadays. Every country on every continent is affected by it. It is proved by scientists that the main factors leading to climate change, many scientists cite human activity and its intensive exploitation of nature. A similar statement follows from the analysis of Part 2 of Art. 1 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, according to which the latter means directly or indirectly caused human activity, generating changes in the composition of the global atmosphere, and is superimposed on the natural climate fluctuations observed during comparable periods of time. Furthermore, regarding the Ukrainian desire - in one a day to join European Union (EU), it is also necessary to consider how far Ukraine is from EU, in terms of climate change policy indicators. The aim of the master’s thesis is to analyze catch-up of European Union greenhouse gases emissions, to estimate the main determinants of the emissions and possibilities to achieve the climate change policy commitments in Ukraine. Objects of the master’s thesis: 1. To evaluate the Ukrainian greenhouse gases emissions (economic growth, renewable energy consumption, foreign direct investment, energy efficiency) catch-up rate of European Union level; 2. To ascertain the main determinants of greenhouse gases emissions; 3. To assess the possibilities of Ukraine to achieve its climate change policy targets. Methods, used in master’s thesis: 1. Scientific literature analysis. Summarizing the information about climate change and its drivers all around the world and Ukraine particularly; 2. Statistical analysis. Processing the available data, taken from online resource The World Bank Data. Processing the data using Microsoft Office Excel 2016 and SPSS Statistics 22.0 software. For the analysis the data in period from 1992 until 2014 was taken. The analysis showed that the annual catch-up rate of greenhouse gases emissions is 2.7% of European Union emissions per year. Meanwhile the economic development catch-up value (-11.5%) testifies that Ukraine is far away from European Union level. The renewable energy and energy efficiency also have the negative value, which proves that in 1992-2014 period the energy policy of Ukraine was not successful, compared to European Union. Catch-up rate of foreign direct investment is 13.4%. Its negative value is connected to domestic economic crisis in Ukraine and military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, because rapid decrease was observed in 2014 after The Revolution of Dignity. The regression analysis of defined determinants showed that economic growth and energy efficiency are two main drivers of emissions increase and as a result climate change in Ukraine. On other hand, renewable energy consumption and foreign direct investments have negative impact on greenhouse gases emissions and stimulates its reduction. The analysis of Ukrainian policies showed that both aims, suggesting to reducing the carbon dioxide emissions level (60% by the 2030, 31-34%, by the 2050, compared to 1990 level) will be fulfilled. Another objective, which assumed to be fulfilled by the 2030 is reduction of energy intensity for 28.0%, compared to 2015. The only one aim, which probably wont be fulfilled is to increase renewable energy consumption for 17.1% of the total energy consumption by the 2030, compared to 2017.