Lithuania

Abstract

This chapter introduces the Lithuanian large-scale forestry scenario simulator Kupolis, explaining the source data, projection methods and links with National Forest Inventory (NFI). The system is built upon detailed Standwise Forest Inventory (SFI) and reliable NFI data on growing stock volume and gross mean annual increment. It allows long-term (>30 years) projections of forest utilization providing output data suited for 10–20 years of forest management planning. The projections are based on: the area control method to estimate the allowable annual cut; regression modelling of stand growth; and control of wood utilization, striving to balance harvest and increment. Kupolis is an operational tool used to predict the forest resource development and wood utilization. The annual budget of final cuttings is re-optimized at each step using the principles of dynamic programming. The budget should fulfil the requirements of sustainability for a full rotation period at level of the analyzed forest management unit, such as a state forest enterprise. Other forestry activities are modelled using iterative simulations of a different type of forest management programs at stand level. The use of Kupolis ranges from a forest compartment to the whole country. Even though the simulator uses input data fitting the formats of Lithuanian SFI, the aggregated data from NFI can be incorporated, under the condition that the description of strata matches the structure and contents of the SFI database.