Mathematical modelling of security of energy supply disturbance scenarios

Abstract

Security of energy supply is extremely important for each country energy development. It depends not only on energy production and infrastructure but also on technical, economical, political and environmental impact. Energy security covers many fields, whereas threats to energy system can be various and consequences have impact to all areas of country’s economy. Mathematical model for consequence scenarios of energy supply potential disturbances, such as technical failure of energy system, natural disasters and catastrophes, terrorism acts, reduction of energy supply, economical blockades, economical and political crisis, etc. is analysed in the paper. Consequences of disturbances used in methodology are technical, economical and socio-political. Development of the model is based on mathematical methods (Markov chains and processes) analysing consequence scenarios of disturbances, performing probabilistic and frequency analysis. In the paper, developed mathematical model of energy system disturbance consequence analysis is presented.