The influence of energy supply disturbances to energy system

Abstract

Energy plays an important role in the national security of any given country as a fuel to power the economic engine. Hence threats to energy security can also result from physical damage to the energy infrastructure either of the supplier, or of the importer as a result of natural events, misfortune, terrorism or warfare. The political and economic instability caused by war or other factors such as strike action can also prevent the proper functioning of the energy industry in a supplier country. All mentioned threats could cause energy supply disturbances affecting the whole energy system and infrastructure. The paper examines the influence of energy supply disturbances to energy system. A single integrated mathematical framework of the whole energy system comprising electricity, gas, and heat networks is formulated using a network flow concept. The mathematical model of energy system as a network defined by a collection of nodes and arcs with energy flowing from node to node along paths in the network and energy supply disturbances affecting this network is proposed. The paper focuses on three elements: energy supply (production), generation, and consumption. The influence of disturbances to energy system is analysed in respect of fuel accessibility, price changes of fuel, and energy, available generation capacity, meeting the demand of consumers. A numerical example of pilot case is presented to highlight the benefits of the methodology and illustrate how energy supply disturbances influence the network of energy system.