Energy security assessment using partial equilibrium models [elektroninis išteklius]

Abstract

Energy security refers to a resilient energy system. Threat analysis of energy system comprises technical, natural, political, geopolitical and other threats. Depending on their realization probability, threats can transform into one or another energy system disturbance. The paper presents a methodology which enables the investigation of energy system resistance to disturbances. One of the mathematical models used here is based on the energy system balance partial equilibrium equations and each disturbance development scenario is modelled in the deterministic way by optimization according to the minimal system costs. Another model is probabilistic and enables the simultaneous simulation of all possible disturbance development scenarios and the assessment of probability of potential consequences of the system. The paper focuses on the partial equilibrium model which is used for energy security assessment. An open source energy modelling system OSeMOSYS with modifications to suit the needs is used as the main tool for modelling the disturbed energy system. The developed model can define which energy system development scenario is optimal in terms of energy security and which is most resistant to the disturbances which are the realizations of threats. An example application of the reference energy system is made to explain the selected functional aspects of the model.