Dependence of the gas supply system criticality indicator(s) on the system elements’ reliability

Abstract

The country’s energy systems are closely related with other systems. The prosperity of country depends on the well-run operation of each of the systems. The disruption in the energy systems can affect the activities of all systems. System criticality level is one of the most important indicators of reliable power supply. The criticality of the system depends on the relations with other parts of energy system. In energy sector, natural gas supply system is one of the most related systems to other systems. Elements of gas supply system have high value of criticality indicator within energy sector. Natural gas is the most commonly used by the heat and electricity generation technologies over the world. The natural-gas supply system was selected as a case study involving analyses of the operability and availability. The pilot numerical calculation was performed to demonstrate how this model is useful to assess the impact of gas supply system to heat and power systems criticality. The natural gas system simulation was performed by optimization method. The probability distribution of criticality indicator is obtained as a result of this study using a Monte Carlo method. The results of this analysis may also be used in the development of energy infrastructure criticality analysis.