Climate change challenges for agriculture in Lithuania

Abstract

Climate change affects many economic sectors, and agriculture is one of the most directly dependent on climatic factors. Lithuania historically is an agricultural country: agricultural land (% of land area) was reported near 48 % and the value of agricultural production amounted to EUR 2.63 billion in 2017. The average temperature in Lithuania in July is about 17°C, while in winter it is about −5°C. Global warming expected to lead to a more vigorous hydrological cycle, including more total rainfall and more frequent high intensity rainfall events. The average annual precipitation in Lithuania is 670 mm, but its distribution throughout the country is uneven, ranging from 500 to 900 mm. However, the latter is faced with increased droughts. The article analyses changes in precipitation and temperature in the last 30 years in central Lithuania and their impact on agriculture. Selyaninov Hydrothermal Coefficient used for identifying droughts during the active vegetation period, based on the water balance equation. While analysing the data of 1978–2018 in the researched territory, it is determined that the lowest quantity of precipitation was in spring (22%) and the highest quantity of precipitation was in summer (about 35%) and autumn (25%). During the research period, the biggest challenge is rainfall disbalance: the drought one year, and floods in others. These challenges particularly affect agriculture, especially increasing climate anomalies in the past decade.